Watch out, Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka, a couple of Canadians are coming for you in the quarter-finals of Roland-Garros.
The draw for the second major of 2026 was made on Thursday in Paris with the five Canadians in singles learning their paths. The roads for Victoria Mboko and Denis Shapovalov have something in common: they are projected to meet the top seed in their respective draws in the last eight.
Of course, there is a lot of tennis to be played before then.
Both Félix Auger-Aliassime and Shapovalov landed in the top half of the men’s draw with the tournament’s overwhelming favourite, world No. 1 Sinner, although they did manage to avoid him until the late rounds. Shapovalov could meet the Italian in the quarter-finals, while the fourth-seeded Auger-Aliassime would face off with the favourite in the semis.
At No. 4, Auger-Aliassime is just the second Canadian ever to be a Top 4 seed in a Grand Slam singles main draw (Milos Raonic was No. 3 at the 2017 Australian Open).
He faces a tricky path to a potential semifinal with Sinner. The Montrealer will open against Daniel Altmaier, with whom he has split four previous meetings, including two on clay, although Auger-Aliassime has won the last two clashes. He would face an Argentinian, always dangerous on clay, in round two, either Sebastian Baez or Roman Andres Burruchaga.
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The first potential seeded opponent for Auger-Aliassime is No. 31 Brandon Nakashima in the third round. Things could get even tougher in round four, with No. 16 Valentin Vacherot, No. 20 Cameron Norrie, and former US Open champion Marin Cilic among potential opponents.
No. 6 seed Daniil Medvedev is his projected quarter-final opponent, although that section is loaded with potentially challenging opponents including No. 10 Flavio Cobolli, No. 18 Learner Tien, No. 25 Francisco Cerundolo, or the retiring home favourite Gael Monfils.
Even with the tough draw, Auger-Aliassime has the potential to climb in the rankings after Roland-Garros given he has a mere 10 points to defend after going out in round one last year. He has not had the best lead-up to Paris, though, going 4-4 this year so far on clay.
Shapovalov will open against a qualifier but would face a stiff test in round two no matter what. Should he get out of the first round, the Richmond Hillian would play either No. 9 seed Alexander Bublik or the perennial thorn in his side Jan Lennard Struff, who leads their head-to-head 7-3 including a straight-set win at Roland-Garros back in 2019. Shapovalov has never beaten Bublik in three meetings.
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If he manages to solve one of those two troublesome opponents, Shapovalov faces potentially back-to-back matches with seeded Americans, No. 19 Frances Tiafoe in round three and No. 5 Ben Shelton in round four.
The 27-year-old has never made it past the third round of Roland-Garros, tripping at that hurdle in both 2023 and 2024. He will be looking for a strong finish to a tough clay-court season that included opening-match losses at all three Masters 1000 events.
Gabriel Diallo will be looking to get back on court in Paris after getting hurt in his opening match in Madrid. He drew James Duckworth in the first round. A win could set up a potentially fascinating round-two clash with rising Spanish star Rafael Jodar.
No. 7 seed Taylor Fritz could be waiting for Diallo in round three. The Canadian is in the bottom quarter of the draw with second seed Alexander Zverev.
On the women’s side, Mboko finds herself on yet another collision course with Aryna Sabalenka. The pair faced off in the fourth round of the Australian Open and the quarter-finals of Indian Wells already this year.
This will be the teen’s second appearance at Roland-Garros, making it the first major she has played twice. Returning this year as the No. 9 seed after qualifying last year, Mboko will face a fellow young gun, 20-year-old Nikola Bartunkova, in the first round.
A win over Simona Waltert or the ever-dangerous Katerina Siniakova in round two would match the Burlingtonian’s breakout result from a year ago. Like Shapovalov, Mboko faces potential back-to-back matchups with American seeds starting in round three, where she could face No. 19 Madison Keys. No. 5 Jessica Pegula is projected in round four to be standing between the teen and a rematch with Sabalenka.
If she reaches the quarter-finals in Paris, it would be Mboko’s best-ever result at a major.
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Of all the Canadians, Leylah Annie Fernandez may have the toughest draw. The No. 24 seed opens against the big-serving American Alycia Parks, who won their previous meeting at a major at the 2024 Australian Open (although Fernandez tagged her back last year in Miami).
The true gauntlet begins in round three, where the Lavalloise is projected to meet the red-hot Marta Kostyuk, who is undefeated on clay in 2026 including a title in Madrid. If Fernandez causes that upset, her reward will most likely be a date with four-time Roland-Garros champion and No. 3 seed Iga Swiatek in the fourth round. The Canadian has won just five games in her two previous meetings with the former World No. 1 and both those meetings were on hard courts, a surface better suited to Fernandez in that matchup.
Main draw play will begin on Sunday in Paris.
Seven Canadians competed in qualifying but none were able to make it to the main draw.
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Alexis Galarneau came the closest. He was the lone Canadian to reach the final round of qualifying and took the opening set of his final match against Federico Cina, but ultimately fell 7-5 in the third set.
Bianca Andreescu and Liam Draxl went out in the second round of qualifying. Cadence Brace, Kayla Cross, Katherine Sebov, and Carol Zhao all lost in the first round.
The doubles and junior draws in Paris have not yet been made. No Canadians will be competing in the wheelchair event this year.
Feature Photo : Martin Sidorjak
